A Train Bound For Nowhere

Last month Stoker and I took a 5 day trip to Death Valley, with overnight stops in Ridgecrest and Lemoore. On what I used to refer to as an ‘Old People’s Bus Trip’. But now we are old people, and it is nice to have all the accommodations arranged and the itinerary decided in advance. By somebody else.

Riding in a bus up and down the San Joaquin Valley, I noticed things I don’t see when I’m driving. Mostly the incredible agricultural bounty of Central Valley. The almonds were blooming and I wondered who was going to eat all of the crop from those endless orchards.

We all know the valley is flat. But occasionally we passed huge mounds of dirt, laced with concrete and steel trellises. Towering above the surrounding fields, looking like the ruins of some ancient civilization. All alone and not connected to anything. They might be ruins eventually, but they aren’t ancient.

Modern Day Chichen Itza? The Mayans are Laughing

Back in 2008, the voters were promised a transportation Nirvana if they would just approve a bond issue. This being blue California, a voting majority does not ask about the finances, thinking money grows on (almond) trees, or only rich people pay taxes. If it sounds like a good idea we approve it, whatever it costs.

In 2008, California voters approved $9.95 billion of state bond funding as seed money to build an 800-mile high-speed rail (HSR) network connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco, and the Central Valley to coastal cities, at speeds of up to 220 miles per hour, with an expected completion date of 2020.

The green segments are ready for use. See any? Me neither.

The original promise was that the entire ‘bullet train’ would cost $40 billion, and whisk passengers from SF to LA in 2 1/2 to 3 hours. Project proponents speculated that the line would transport 90 million passengers each year. That is 250,000 per day, which seems like an optimistic forecast. Almost as optimistic as the construction schedule.

Here we are in 2025, 18 years after the bond issue and 5 years after the 2020 start date promised to the voters. No track had been laid. Plenty of money has been spent though.

It gets even better, which means even worse. The new plan is to complete the line from Merced to Bakersfield first. Talk about a train bound for nowhere! That alone is now projected to cost $33 billion. And they need $7 billion STAT!

During a budget hearing focused on transportation in the State Assembly on Wednesday, Helen Kerstein with the California Legislative Analyst’s Office told lawmakers the project faces a $7 billion budget gap and the funds need to be secured by next June. If not, Kerstein said it will create yet another delay for plans to finish the project’s first segment between Merced and Bakersfield.

The hope is to complete this (virtually useless) segment by 2030 to 2033. Anybody taking bets?