House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., argued Friday that global inflation “starts with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” but that increased U.S. government spending on domestic social programs would help decrease the national debt and bring down inflation at home.”

Ms. Pelosi is a very smart woman. So she knows that what she said is complete nonsense. But, being such a smart and powerful person, she (her preferred pronoun) also knows that no one is going to dispute her. Except for the Rich Freggiaro Cycling Blog! I should probably be worried about being put on a ‘no fly list’ or being audited by the IRS.

Gas prices in the U.S. averaged $2.33 on January 6, 2021. On February 1, 2022, well before Russia invaded Ukraine, the price had risen 48% to $3.46.

Now on to the fanciful notion that increased government spending will decrease the national debt and bring down inflation at home. Really this is such an outrageous statement that I can hardly stop laughing. Except it isn’t that funny.

Here is a picture for your consideration. Discussion to follow:

The red line is the rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The black line is the rate of growth in the money supply as measured by M2.

The CPI is kind of self explanatory, but we need to spend a moment on M2. If you add up all the money in checking accounts, all the physical currency in circulation, and certain savings accounts and short term CD’s, you get M2. M2 is considered the best measure of the money supply.

So far so good. But things are about to get very complicated. We know the US government has the power to print money. But how much that money is worth depends on how much they print. That responsibility had been delegated to the Federal Reserve, a powerful and semi autonomous government agency. The Fed has the power, authority and tools to control how fast M2 grows.

Over time the money supply needs to grow at roughly the same rate as real GDP (Gross Domestic Product, a measure of the goods and services produced). If you are a loyal reader you will remember PQ=MV. Q is real GDP, and it grows over time. So for prices to be stable and the economy to grow, M has to grow too (V is assumed to be relatively stable).

Conspiracy lovers blame the Fed for everything from the price of gas to the common cold, or now the Common Covid. I’m not one of those at all. But what the Fed does, in cooperation with the Congress and Executive Office regarding Federal deficit spending, affects the value of money. More than Putin’s war does.

Now to the chart. Notice how sometimes the black line spikes up far above the red line? Then what happens? The black line falls and the red line rises until it close to or above the black line. The simplistic conclusion is that when M2 is allowed to grow faster that real GDP, inflation follows. When M2 growth is restrained, the rate of inflation comes down.

The chart goes back to the early 1940’s, WWII years. Back then the US Government was spending way more money that it took in in taxes, i.e. deficit spending. But prices were kept low by using price controls, and since prices were artificially low ration cards were issued to dampen demand for goods. After the war price controls were lifted and all that created M2 went around chasing goods that weren’t there. Inflation!

Same thing in the 1970’s. Deficit spending for Vietnam, social programs, the Cold War, whatever. The Fed played along by sopping up Treasury Bonds and letting M2 get ahead of itself. Inflation spiked twice soon after.

Then came a long period of relative price stability and stable money supply growth, and all was well until 2008, when some Wall Street creations called ‘derivatives’ that were supposedly rated AAA turned out to be based on inflated housing prices and were really more like FFF. There was a steep drop in M2 and everyone was worried about deflation and a collapse of the US economy resembling what happened in 1929 through 1932. The Fed reacted by quickly restoring M2 and putting ‘liquidity’ into the financial markets to avert a crisis. Deflation averted, unlike what happened in 1929, when the Fed sat on its hands and let M2 fall something like 30% and allowed banks to fail. Depression followed.

So with all that as background, look what happened in 2020 and into 2021. M2 grew faster than at any point in the past 80 years. Remember that money that magically appeared in your bank checking account? M2 growth. Free Covid tests and masks and emergency production of ventilators which proved to be unnecessary and even counterproductive? Financed by M2 growth making the deficit spending possible. Hospital ships moved into New York harbor and emergency Covid centers like the one at Arco Arena in Sacto, which never housed a single patient?. M2 again.

All this may or may not have been a good idea as a reaction to the Covid pandemic, aka Pandemia, which is a great book by Alex Berenson about events since March 2020. I’m not going to debate anyone about Covid policy. But I’m not going to let Ms. Pelosi’s comments stand without at least a little push back. Even if it does get me on a ‘no fly’ list. Mr. Putin is a bad man causing the world much trouble. But if you are upset about rising prices, look to Washington, not Moscow.

For years, this was part of every male annual physical examination, to check for prostate swelling, which could indicate prostate cancer, or the more common and less worrisome but still uncomfortable ‘benign prostatic hyperplasia’.

Now I certainly have a few health issues, but the symptoms of BPH are not among them. So I can ignore all the ads for supplements to promote prostate health. But still it pays to be safe, so for years I bent over and let my GP do his thing. I think he was more nervous about it than I was. Much, much easier than dental implants.

But progress marches ahead, and at Adventist Health in Lodi the finger is a thing of the past. It has been replaced by something called a PSA test and is a standard part of the blood work for a routine male physical.

At least that was what I thought. For years I’ve had PSA tests and never been asked to pay extra for them. But when I went to the lab last week I was told that of the battery of blood tests my Medicare and supplemental would cover all of them, EXCEPT for the PSA. Apparently it was coded as ‘medically unnecessary’.

Now at least the receptionist was nice enough to inform me of this before they drew blood, and let me know that if I wanted the test it was going to cost me $150. So even if there was no finger involved, I would be getting the finger, metaphorically speaking.

What’s an uninformed and relatively prosperous patient to do? I said go ahead and do the test. We spend about 1/7th of our GDP on medical care, so what’s a few dollars more? It’s only about the cost of one tank of gas…

Now it does seem to me that screening for prostate cancer might actually be considered ‘medically necessary’. When I finally saw my doctor to discuss the labs and other matters, I asked him if there had been some coding error in ordering the test that meant I had to pay instead of the insurance company. He told me that up to age 65 the screening was medically necessary and insurance would pay. But once you turn age 65 new rules come into play, and if you are asymptomatic then the test isn’t necessary and if you want it anyway, open up the wallet.

If you think this doesn’t make a lot of sense, I would point out that when government bureaucrats and insurance company lobbyists get together over drinks very little good can come out of it. I wonder what other surprises lay in store as I begin my Medicare odyssey?

There are elements I strive for in each of my posts to entertain my 10 readers. Gentle self deprecating humor. Common sense in the face of social science stupidity. Outrage at lunacy and waste of taxpayer money. And always, always, reminding people of how much I love Stoker.

There is none of that in this post. Three of my cycling friends have been diagnosed with cancer in the last few months. They are all in various stages of diagnosis, surgeries and post surgical treatment regimes.

The prognoses of the three are unknown and uncertain. They could be cured or go into remission. They might lead long and healthy lives. Or they may not. All we can do is hope and pray and offer support.

Another cycling friend is having heart difficulties with some complications. He has had procedures and medications to try to bring the problem under control, but for now his cycling is on hold even with an e bike. It might not be as serious as cancer but it still sounds serious and troubling.

Yet another cycling friend listed his extraordinarily beautiful and nearly brand new custom build road bike for sale on Facebook due to ‘recent health challenges’. I have no idea what those are, but if he is selling this truly beautiful bicycle, ridden less than 200 miles, they much be significant.

My dad’s first cousin Dino Cortopassi passed away recently. The Celebration of Life was Saturday. It was very nice. My parents were very close to Dino and his wife Joan and their family, and it is hard to think of him not being here anymore.

Another cousin has cancer and is in and out of hospital.

We are all getting older and as we do health problems become more frequent and magnified. We spend more time going to doctors’ appointments and in hospital waiting areas. And, sadly, at funerals.

There isn’t anything we can do about this except try to enjoy the moments we have and do good and kind things whenever we can. Because eventually we can’t.

If you are looking for a blog that is going to pontificate about events concerning Russia, Ukraine, NATO, the U.S. and China, you are in the wrong place. But until the world comes to an end, I want to know what is OK to put over ice while we watch the evening news.

It seems that well meaning and patriotic bar and liquor store owners across the western world are pouring Russian vodka down the drain in solidarity with the Ukrainians fighting for their country.

Now here on Brumby Road, the vodka of choice is Stolichnaya. Always has been. ‘Stoli’ acquired cachet back in the late 1970’s when it first became available in the US and the Soviets needed hard currency to go onto the wheat futures market and steal our grain at rock bottom prices. I remember it sold for $25 for a 750 ml bottle, which was astonishingly expensive at the time. Even Jack Daniels was only about $10 per bottle back then.

Today at BevMo, you can get a 1.75 liter bottle for $23, which demonstrates that not all essential goods are participating in the current 7.5% annual inflation rate. And the quality seems as good as ever. Although with vodka it can be hard to differentiate, since it has kind of a numbing effect. Great for aches and pains and attitude adjustment though.

So I looked on the back of the bottle that we keep in the freezer, ready and waiting for the News Hour, and look what I found:

Produced and bottled in Latvia! Hooray! Latvia is a NATO member and one of the countries in the line of fire if Putin really wants to recreate the USSR, so I can buy their vodka with a clear conscience knowing I am helping an ally.

Then my friend Gavin from the UK (not that other Gavin, the mask man) informed me that the water is Latvian, but the alcohol is Russian! Gavin does something in banking and currencies and knows quite a bit more about this kind of thing than I do.

Now even if what Gavin (the Good Gavin, not that guy in Sacto) says is true, to me this seems like an excellent example of detente, “where East and West can meet as comrades, ease the tension, over drinks”. This is an obscure musical theater reference and the kind of thing that rumbles around in my head. Anybody recognize it? Here’s a clue…

I wanted to know more, so I went to Google and Wikipedia. Here is some of what I found:

Stolichnaya, for example, is a historic Russian brand owned by two different companies – one based in Russia, and one based in Luxembourg. The Stolichnaya vodka you find in the US, for example, is made in Latvia.

Luxemborg! The gnomes of Zurich are close to hand. You can’t get more Capitalist than that. And:

Stoli vodka is currently produced in Latvia, a former Soviet republic that joined NATO in 2004.

And now to add to the confusion:

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union the ownership of the brand has been disputed between a Russian state-owned company and SPI Group, a private company. The Stolichnaya sold in the US is made by the latter company, which distills it in Lativa (though it does use alcohol from a distillery in Russia).

So here is what I think happens. Low quality alcohol from Russia is sent to the magic vodka plant in Latvia. The distillery feed stock is made from fermented grain, possibly distilled once or twice. At the plant in Latvia the REAL distillation process and filtering takes place, then the Latvian water is added to produce the final 80 proof product.

That’s good enough for me. Stolichnaya is a NATO friendly product. So unless BevMo and Raley’s decide that anything that sounds Russian must be gone from the shelves, I’m going to bring a bottle home. Or 2…

Last Saturday was a Red Letter Day on Brumby Road. First I sported a new fashion look on the Club ride, then got a new version of my LOOK back after an OCS component update.

First the fashion faux pax: when I got to the ride start in Valley Springs I put on my jersey, but I was having trouble with the zipper. The little tab at the bottom had kind of worn away, so the jersey kept opening up from the bottom. The sides of the jersey were flapping in the wind, especially going down hill.

The flapping was irritating. And I was worried that my phone and wallet might fall out of the back pockets. So I had to take desperate measures.

I wear bib shorts, and the shoulder straps are supposed to be worn under the jersey. But I pulled the straps up and over the top of the jersey and tucked the bottom under the bibs, creating the ‘walnut farmer’ cyclist look.

Of course I got a lot of teasing about this, and someone took a picture and put it on the Club Facebook page. There was even talk that the page administrator might change the cover photo, but nothing came of it.

I once came upon a rider on a Backroads Tour in France who was wearing his bib and jersey the same way, and I my have made some disparaging comments about this in my blog. And as I have been reminded, world class endurance cyclist, multiple times RAAM Champion and Valley Springs resident Seana Hogan wears her bib shorts this same way. She has a practical reason for doing so; remember she spends long, long periods of time in the saddle and occasionally nature calls. Her sartorial method saves time. Form follows function…

Seana is a big champion and can do what she wants, but on me the look is ridiculous. Roberta posted the picture from a Terry Catalog of someone who can definitely pull off the bib short look, but I hope I don’t have to resort to it again.

Later that afternoon Mark Stemey of OCS returned my new look LOOK. I got the bike back in 2009, and I decided that it could use some upgraded components. Mainly I needed lower gears if I was ever going to take the bike up some serious climbs,. The Dura Ace 10 speed drive train was limited to a 28 tooth cog in the cassette. I need a 32 tooth cog at least, and a 34 tooth is even better.

So I got some new stuff; SRAM Red levers and derailleurs and a cassette and a new chain and a new handlebar and bar tape, and asked Mark to do the installation. He picked up the LOOK and brought it back a week later, on the same day I sported a new cycling fashion look. I’m LOOKing forward to years with the LOOK but I hope the other look was a one off…

It is no secret that California really needs significant rain, and the clock is ticking toward spring and summer fast. If you were outside yesterday, you might think summer was here already.

This year’s weather has been quite variable. There was record rainfall in October which affected the walnut harvest. November was completely dry. December brought record snowfall and significant rain to the valley. January and February have returned to the dry pattern. Great for cycling, not so good if you like to take showers or irrigate orchards.

Facebook has started doing something kind of clever in an effort to keep people clicking away. They offer you ‘memories’ of posts you made on a certain day in previous years. Here is a sample:

February 2013 looks like the beach weather we are currently enjoying while simultaneously feeling guilty for doing so and worrying about the drought. February 2019 looks like an ice age is coming and glaciers are returning to the Sierras. February 2017 looks like God decided to break his promise to Noah never to destroy the earth with a flood again.

Three Februaries, three extreme weather events. The same thing can happen in March. Years back before Facebook there was a drought ended by a ‘March Miracle’ of late season record rain and snowfall. It was a great year for the water supply and a terrible year for cherry growers. Those lazy bees just didn’t want to get their stingers wet. I don’t have any ‘Facebook Memories’ of that year, but I know our line of credit got a workout with no cherry crop to sell.

Sometimes I think that ‘professional’ educators are going out of their way to make writing a blog the easiest thing in the world. Consider:

One Connecticut school is under fire for handing out a “Pizza and Consent” assignment, where eighth-grade students were given a handout stating that pizza can be used as a “metaphor for sex,” which instructed students to list their favorite and least favorite pizza toppings “in relation to sex.”

“Here are some examples: Likes: Cheese = Kissing,” the assignment states. “Dislikes: Olives = Giving Oral,” stated the assignment given to eighth graders within the Enfield Public Schools.

“Now that you know this metaphor for sex, let’s explore your preferences! Draw and color your favorite type of pizza. What’s your favorite style of pizza? Your favorite toppings? What are your pizza no-nos? Now mirror these preferences in relation to sex!,” the assignment states.

Now if you think I am making this up, here is a picture of the pizza diagram, all ready to be topped (from below?) with sexy metaphors.

A veritable tabula rasa, a blank canvass to express the divine and disgusting aspects of human sexual behavior. Brought to you by public schools and paid for with taxpayer dollars. In 8th grade too! Grammar and writing skills and arithmetic are out, and associating erotica with mozzarella is in.

Can you believe that ‘professional’ educators created this stuff? They think The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn needs to be banned but a discussion of peccadilloes and preferences is completely appropriate.

Now eating pizza and the participating in the metaphorical activities associated with the toppings are my idea of a perfect day. When it comes to pizza, Stoker and I are in complete agreement: Pizza Guys. We get the regular crust with tomato sauce, topped with pepperoni, yellow onions, and fresh green peppers. We will sprinkle on Parmesan but never dried red pepper flakes. Other toppings are acceptable, but these are our favorites. However we would never tolerate anchovies. And pineapple is blasphemy.

When it comes to the using toppings as metaphors, I’ll just say that whatever Stoker wants, and whenever she wants it, is fine by me. I didn’t need a ‘modern’ 8th grade assignment to know that.

Last week, the Washington Post spoke with several economists who listed their ideas on how to solve the economic issues facing the nation. One idea listed for the White House to “combat inflation” was price controls. The idea was suggested by the Roosevelt Institute’s Todd Tucker, in which he argued that the time may be at hand to “destigmatize” concerns over price controls.

“To ensure that the wealthy do not bid up prices for essential items, the time is now to begin destigmatizing greater democratic control over price levels,” Tucker concluded.

You might think economists know a lot. They have complicated mathematical models and theories (Pareto Optimality, anyone?) and can be seen making predictions and proclamations on television with great confidence. They speak in a kind of code. Terms like ‘money supply’, ‘quantitative easing’, ‘deficit spending’, ‘currency fluctuation’, ‘excess demand’ and ‘the federal funds rate’ come tripping off of their tongues.

Of course the track record of these economists in predicting what is going to ensue is not so great. They can always blame this on ‘exogenous shocks’ which means that some variable that the economic model does not take into account changes suddenly and dramatically and disrupts the equations. Covid is a perfect example. But since life itself is kind of a series of exogenous shocks, the usefulness of economists is mostly a moot point.

Really, economists do not know so much. But one thing they do know is how to create a shortage. And that is for the government to set the price of a commodity or service below the ‘market price’.

What is this ‘market price? you may ask. I could get all wonky on you and speak of demand curves and supply curves and functions and marginal cost of production equaling marginal price. But since a picture is worth a thousand words, take a peak at this diagram and you’ll get the idea:

Let’s take a real world example using one of Stoker’s and my favorite commodities: Côtes du Rhône vin rouge. The typical bottle that finds its way to our Raley’s market sells for about $12. At that price Stoker and I will purchase a bottle a day, to keep the Covid away. Remember my last blog? Got to keep stocked up.

Now $12 is the free market price, balancing production and consumption. Stoker and I would pay much more, but because there are consumers who will switch to something else at a higher price, we don’t have to. Similarly, there are producers who are willing to produce the wine for less than $12, but they don’t have to accept less. The market price balances the value of the product to the last consumer with the production cost of the last producer. In Econ speak, the market clears when Price = Marginal Cost of Production = Marginal Value to Consumer.

Now let’s say that the government determines that this $12 price represents a case of the ‘wealthy‘ bidding up the price of an ‘essential item‘ and so decides to exercise ‘greater democratic control over price levels‘. They decree that henceforth the price of a bottle of Côtes du Rhône vin rouge will be a more Equitable $5. Selling it for more is now a crime.

This well intended action will have consequences. Demand will increase, because now some people who don’t want a bottle at $12 will be quite happy to pay $5 for it. And supply will fall, because only the most efficient producers will be able to make a profit at $5 per bottle.

The result of this market disruption is that the economy moves from a point of Pareto Optimality to a non Pareto Optimal point. Consumer Surplus and Producer Surplus are both reduced, and everyone is less well off (aka ‘poorer’) than they would be had the government not gotten into the price setting business. Oops, I did get a bit wonky there. Guilty as charged.

If you think gas lines, bread lines, lines at the meat counter or in the Côtes du Rhône vin rouge store are a good idea, just write your congressperson and tell them you think high prices are unfair, inequitable, and perhaps even racist. And that the government needs to set the prices at a reasonable level. Life is only fair when everyone can afford everything and we are all economically equal. Equally poor…

“Drink no longer water, but use a little wine for thy stomach’s sake and thine often infirmities” (1 Tim 5:23).

The Covid Vaccines do not seem to be doing a great job of preventing people from getting Covid. I know several people who got all the shots and still got the virus. And we hear nearly every day about another celebrity or politician or sports star who has been double jabbed and boosted coming down with the virus. The latest is Elton John, who had to cancel his concert in Dallas. My friend Kent and his wife had plane tickets and hotel reservations to see the show. They were lucky that Sir Elton cancelled one day before they left.

Note I did not say that vaccines are useless. All I said is that they do not stop people from getting Covid. There are too many counterexamples to deny that is true.

Stoker and I are both double vaxxed and boosted, which may not be enough to vanquish the virus from Brumby Road. But Côtes du Rhône Vin Rouge to the rescue!

The study discovered that those who consume five or more glasses of red wine a week had a 17% lesser risk of catching the virus.

Finally a Covid prevention program I can support wholeheartedly! Five glasses a week? No problem! Let’s ‘make assurance double sure’ and just say two glasses a day to be safe. A sacrifice Stoker and I are willing to make in the fight to stop the spread.

Unfortunately, if you are an IPA type, the news is not so good:

However, the report had some bad news of pint lovers. It revealed that those who drank any amount of beer and cider were at a 28% higher risk of getting Covid.

So if you are a beer drinker, you are being as socially irresponsible as the unvaxxed or unmasked. 28% higher versus 17% lower? That is a 45% difference. I expect Dr. Fauci to hold a press conference immediately calling for a big reset in American’s drinking preferences. Do the socially responsible thing and pull a cork today…

The 1970’s were the decade that I changed the most. In January 1970 I was 14 years old and in 8th grade. Ten years later on New Year’s Eve 1979, I had just finished my first year of employment with a consulting firm in Washington DC. During those ten years I graduated high school and university. I fell in love twice and got dropped by both women, causing me much angst. But now I’m so grateful for those two, because they paved the way for Stoker and a subsequent 39 years of marital harmony.

The 1970’s were a pretty traumatic decade for our country. There was the Vietnam War. Oil boycotts and gas lines. Iranian students took hostages at our embassy, a crisis that lasted more than a year. Inflation in the US reached 15%. By the end of the decade President Carter urged us to deal with the energy crisis by putting on a sweater and lamented our “national malaise”. Good times!

The 1970’s are well behind us, but for me ‘Age 70’ is just ahead. And many of my cycling buddies have either turned 70 or will shortly. The latest is Dean, who crosses that threshold today. So yesterday 4 of us decided to join him in a 70 mile bike ride to commemorate the occasion.

We started in Linden with our fellow Stockton Bike Club members for the Jenny Lind Pancake ride. We rode to the Jenny Lind Odd Fellows Hall for their fundraising pancake breakfast. Coffee, tomato juice (Bloody Mary jokes abound) eggs, sausage or ham, and two hotcakes for $7. This is one of our favorite mid ride refuel stops for certain!

That got us to mile 20. Instead of back tracking to Linden we headed south towards Milton. The five riders who decided to ‘go long’ were Birthday Boy Dean, Kent (age 66), Bill (70+), Marlin (70+) and me (65). Kent had laid out a route which was basically the Pedaling Paths to Independence Ride backwards. That would get us to 62 miles, and we would add a short Linden loop to get to the required total.

When we got to the intersection of Hwy 26 and Duncan Road, we had 62 miles in the books. It was time for me to apply my local knowledge of the roads to get us to something close to 70 miles, but certainly over that magic number. No one wants to roll around a parking lot for 3-5 minutes to get the odometer to turn over. I did a pretty good job; we did a little loop and pulled into the Orlando’s parking lot with 70.7 miles on our Garmins.

The miles=age tradition on our birthdays gets a little more daunting each passing year, but Dean had absolutely no problem with 70, and since I’m only 65 I’m pretty sure I’ll be able to manage 66 miles come next June. I hope I have companions like these gentlemen to accompany me. No pancakes though, my birthday is at the end of the month and the Odd Fellows breakfast is the second Sunday. Can’t have everything…